Percentages When Making Choices
Here’s a question for you: What would Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee choose, what decision would they make if their choice was 50/50, 2 out of 3 or 85 %?
How do Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee make a decision when there is a percentage of risk involved? Is there such a thing as a “no risk offer”? Hmmm…I wonder…..When President Tweedle Dum and his advisors made the decision to go to war with Iraq for example, this choice, like many decisions, was based on a perception of risk, that is, the perceived threat posed by Iraq under Saddam Hussein. Key government Tweedles also believed that inaction with respect to Iraq posed a greater risk than taking action. Since September 11, 2001, the threats and risks of terrorism have loomed large in Tweedle Dum and Dee’s perception, pushing aside the more common concerns such as highway accidents and heart disease. Many health and safety problems, even including war and terrorism, become by-products of how the Tweedles reason about risk.
Researchers found, when analyzing data from several studies, that Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee often overestimate small risks, an example would be–the risk of complications from vaccinations. Stating percentages for or against a certain outcome tend to confuse Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee as well as create inconsistencies in their decision-making.
They tend to choose options involving risk when the outcome is described in the context of a 2/3 chance that 600 people will be saved. Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee avoided taking a risk when the same outcome was described as a 1/3 chance that 600 people will die. One would logically reason that these superficially different reasoning problems would be treated similarly. But many times the Tweedles don’t follow that line of thought. If the Tweedles tend to choose to have surgery when it is described as having an 80% survival rate, then they should logically make the same choice if the option is described as having a 20% mortality rate. The outcome is the same even though the way it is presented is different. But the Tweedles often times make different choices based on how the percentages are presented.
I found an interesting story example that I’d like to share with you that illustrates quite well Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee’s choice dilemma.
The Consequences of Choice
Suppose you have an unfulfilling job or have been involved in an unhealthy relationship for years and a new opportunity arises: do you take advantage of it? Research studies have shown that there’s a good chance that you won’t. Have you found yourself saying something like: “It’s been 10 years, how can I leave now?” Or possibly after a losing day of gambling, you continue repeating the Las Vegas mantra: “I can’t stop playing now; I’ve already lost $1,000.”
Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee repeatedly seem to fall for what is termed the “sunk cost fallacy”—the idea that just because you have made an investment in something, that in and of itself, that investment justifies additional cost. Decision-making by “less smart” animals such as dogs generally follow the “don’t waste” rule. If only the Tweedles would also follow this rule, they would maximize future benefits and minimize future costs. (Arkes, 2000)
Real Life Example #1
After digging for somewhere around half an hour, Roscoe the Retriever (loyal companion of Tweedle Dum) finds an old, decrepit bone he had buried in the backyard last month. Roscoe settles down to work on the newfound treat. When Tweedle Dum sees Roscoe with the dirt-encrusted, smelly discovery—he runs in the house, comes back out and gives Roscoe a new bone, one still juicy with meat. What do you think Roscoe’s choice was? The decision was easy for Roscoe. He promptly drops the smelly old bone and chooses the new, more nutritious one. I’d like to pose a question to you and would be interested in what your answer would be. Would you agree or disagree that Roscoe’s “choice” was the best one?
The strange thing, according to research recently published in the Psychological Bulletin, is that the choice Roscoe made isn’t as obvious or as immediate when Tweedle Dum or Tweedle Dee are confronted with the same sort of decision. Huh. I wonder why that is……………..
Well, the next example contrasts the canine “choice” in the above story with a human “problem”.
Dan Ariely, in his recent book, Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (Harper) condenses his life’s work at MIT which was spent designing experiments that examine the psychological origins of “bad” decisions. It seems that many times the Tweedles allow themselves to be sucked into situations that they really don’t fully comprehend.
Real Life Example #2
Ok, let’s say that there are a group of young Tweedles who have the choice between hanging out with friends at a mall, or going to an unsupervised party. What “choice” do you think they will make, why do they make the “choice”–and why is it usually different from the “choice” their Tweedle parents would make? It seems that many would choose the riskier option, because that option offers the possibility of more fun. Tweedles in their adolescent years more frequently would analyze this decision by weighing risks and benefits. The mall-versus party decision depends on the amount of perceived fun and the degree of perceived risk.
I can tell you that most Tweedle parents would view these options in much different terms: they reason that no amount of fun will compensate for the risks, which is at odds with the teenage Tweedles use of a cost-benefit decision-making process.
For adult Tweedles, to put it another way– the number of bullets in a pistol magazine plays a smaller role than does the decision to play Russian Roulette at all. Adolescent Tweedles deciding whether to go to the party rather than go to the mall represent the decision as involving whether they would choose to go to the mall and have a “specific” amount of fun, or take a small perceived risk and have a chance of having much more fun at the party. They are using the reasoning principle that more fun is better than less fun, and applying it to a risks and rewards scenario. Ultimately, more often than not, they will decide that going to the party is preferred. In contrast, parents will analyze the decision between the two options as being between having fun at the mall, or taking a risk and either having fun at the party or possibly missing out on fun by not going to the mall. Parent Tweedles apply the reasoning principle that one should avoid risk and thus prevent possible negative outcomes. This seemingly crude all-or-none categorization of risk that most adult Tweedles apply in these situations actually display more advanced “smarts” than the subtle risk/reward choices that adolescents use to make decisions.
Real Life Example #3
Has this happened to you? Let’s say for instance, that a Tweedle, basing his decision on past experience, leaves a second or two of space between him and the other Tweedle vehicle ahead of him. This generally works great, except when, for example, the road conditions don’t match up with the circumstances in which the following distance was originally calculated. The road has now become slippery; visibility lessens, while traffic congestion increases during this period of inclement weather. Now, even though Tweedle Dee can see that conditions have changed, why does he not alter his decision on following distances? As happens all too often, an adequate amount of travelling distance is not maintained and accidents inevitably happen.
Real Life Example #4
Have you ever found yourself asking someone whose opinion you respect, expect them to agree with your initial decision, but hear them say “no”, and then you say to yourself “I think I will stick with my decision anyway”? Experts call this line of reasoning the Confirming Evidence type of decision-making, whereby the evidence or opinion which supports your position is listened to, but evidence or opinion contrary to your position is ignored. Tweedles frequently look for confirmation from other Tweedles who agree with them, and discount or avoid those who disagree. Unfortunately, the Tweedles in many cases end up neglecting information that would help them make a more reasoned “choice”. I have found myself asking the question: “why was I asking for an opinion if I was going to ignore it if they disagreed with me?” The Tweedles often forget to ask probing questions about why a fellow Tweedle is offering a contrary opinion.
In general, the Tweedles ability to make good decisions–good “choices”, depend on being able to evaluate and question yourself in a non-biased way, then actually try to find contrary opinions.
Real Life Example #5
The Tweedles natural leanings are to protect themselves from physical harm and pain. These “feelings” seem to be internally hardwired, and it really seems as though there is little the Tweedles can do to change these behaviors.
What’s even worse–it seems to screw up Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee’s normal decision-making processes–processes which originate from the mere “imagining” that a negative outcome may result from a future event. Dwelling upon these thoughts give them fits of worry and stress. There is one technique however, that the Tweedles could employ which is sometimes referred to as “Peeling the Onion.” By performing this exercise, the Tweedles search for a satisfactory outcome to a projected event—one which they can “live” with. Let’s look at a difficult situation the Tweedles find themselves in and hopefully you will see what is meant by “Peeling an Onion”.
OK–so Tweedle Dum takes the imagined negative result and asks himself the question, “why do I feel worried and afraid because of what “could” happen?” Is that result “bad?” “Of course it’s bad…how could it not be?” But then Tweedle Dum thinks a little more about the situation. He analyzes it from as many points of view as he can. Tweedle Dum’s goal now is to continue to ask that same question until he notices an emotional shift: a shift that moves from one of fear and worry–to one of relief. When Tweedle Dum reaches that point–a point where he can feel comfortable with the outcome — then he has reached that place where it is all OK and those fearful images stop.
So…here’s the example. Let’s say you are afraid of losing your job. The first peel of the onion is the question “What’s so bad about losing my job?” You might answer the question by saying: “If I lose my job, then I won’t be able to make the mortgage payment.”
The second peel on the onion is: “Well, what’s so bad about not making the mortgage payment?” Continue again, and answer the question by saying something like: “Well, If I don’t make the mortgage payment then eventually I’ll lose my house”.
On to the next peel. You ask: “What’s so bad about losing the house?” Back to an answer: “Well, If I lose the house, then I’ll lose all of the home equity, which comprises all of the savings I have.” Continue to the next onion “peel”: “Well, If I have no savings, then I’ll be broke.” Onward…“What’s so bad about being broke?” Answer: “Well, then I will feel ashamed that I am now unable to take care of myself”. Yet another peel: “Well, what if I can’t take care of myself?” Answer: “Well, then I guess I would have to move in with my parents– but how embarrassed I would feel about that!” The next peel: Are you getting the hang of this now? The question: “Well, then what’s so bad about feeling shame and embarrassment?” Now…we are finally getting to the “core” of the onion. Next–you ask not a question…but instead come up with a solution. You say to yourself: “Many people–some of whom are my friends and acquaintances– have gotten caught up in this economic down turn, and many of those same people are getting help from their parents as well. It really seems as if I am in the same boat as them. But, really, I’m sure that I can find a job of some kind, and move into a rental as soon as I find something.”
Maybe the questions and answers won’t come quite as quickly as the way I have presented them here, that, but I hope you get the idea.
The whole point of this exercise is that you continue to “Peel the Onion”, until you find a state of stability and peace of mind.
Try it sometime…It worked for Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee!
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